Friday, June 23, 2017

SS...

Lmfao and you all worshipped this asshole. Sad. You got played by a fraud. So pathetic.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

StockTwits/Blog Over

Well, I'm officially banned from StockTwits and they won't reinstate me.  Thank you to all of the pussy ass trolls for reporting me and the shitty website/app known as StockTwits for many months of no-win situation arguments with complete morons.  You are the world's biggest idiots.  To StrawberrySam, you're a fraud.  It's scary how dumb ST makes the U.S. population look.

In all seriousness, thank you to all of those that have contributed to the DD efforts for SPHS.  I'd like to give a special shoutout to StockTwits users @R_Shloima and @Boomerman24 - two of the kindest and two truly good hearted people on StockTwits.

Thank you for reading for the last time,
TheHedgeFundHouse

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

Thoughts on $TSLA

Hello all,

Below is a quick summary of my thoughts on Tesla (ticker: TSLA).

It's going bankrupt.

The company is losing money and there is no fairytale ending in sight for this one.  I do not believe that the Model 3 will aid the company in its hopes of becoming profitable.  In fact, I think that it will pull Tesla even further away from the elusive break-even point.  Tesla plans to produce 5,000 Model 3's at its Fremont factory per week by EOY and 10,000 per week during 2018.  These numbers are far fetched, in my opinion.  Section B of the following SA article does an excellent job in explaining why the actual numbers are likely to disappoint: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4078795-tesla-cars-easy-total-expensive-repair.

Let's give Elon a break for dreaming bigger than reality.  Let's say Tesla hits those production projections.  Consumers worldwide buy the Model 3 as fast as Tesla produces them and soon there are over 250,000 Model 3's on the road in the U.S. alone.  Cool factor - GONE.  The thing that made Tesla the company that it was early on was that it was a new, futuristic and one-of-a-kind product.  Model S's were unique and rare.  Wealthy individuals couldn't wait to get their hands on one because they would be the only ones in their town to have a Tesla.  Now, when a Tesla goes down the road, no one turns their head anymore.  What do you think it'll be like when Model 3's are as common on the roads as a Toyota Corolla or Ford Focus?  No one will care.  Imagine Ferrari coming out with an affordable car for the masses.  Do you think wealthy men and women will be enthusiastic to go out and buy the new Ferrari flagship model?  No!  They're not going to want to own something that everyone around town owns the slightly lesser version of - that's not unique, attention-grabbing, or cool at all.  The Model 3 will kill the little bit of remaining cool factor that the Tesla brand carries.  That could mean that the S and X models may not only have already plateaued, but could soon begin to decline.  With a fair amount of hopeful profitability in the future coming from these top-of-the-line flagship models, a declining appeal and lust for these vehicles would spell deep trouble for the already consistently cash-losing Tesla.

The Solar City acquisition - where do I begin?  How about this year old, yet still very relevant SA article: https://seekingalpha.com/article/3983895-tesla-solarcity-marriage-made-hell.  The Solar City acquisition by Tesla was an enormous red flag.  Elon Musk was the largest stakeholder in the failing company, and not only that, but his SpaceX venture also had financial ties to it!  He is essentially bailing out one of his failed business moves with Tesla investors' money.  How is that acceptable or ethical at all?  Without Tesla, Solar City would be bankrupt right now - that is a fact.  No investment bank would underwrite another financing of any kind for the cash-gobbling entity.  With this acquisition, Tesla not only takes on more negative cash flow, but they acquire a bunch of debt and therefore accrued interest payments.  When a cash siphoning company buys out another cash siphoning company, what do you get?  The answer is: an even more likely bankruptcy case for a greater than before cash siphoning company.

Other stories such as unsafe working conditions in factories compared to automotive industry averages (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/18/tesla-workers-factory-conditions-elon-musk), AAA's 30% insurance premium hikes (and more to come) on Tesla vehicles due to their less safe and higher to repair costs than other vehicles (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/it-s-going-cost-you-30-percent-more-insure-tesla-n768711), and countless other red flags also fuel my expectations for a major collapse to come for Tesla when the time is right.  I do not expect it to happen soon, thanks to the blind herd mentality of chasing the bull run/minor short squeeze that is likely in effect at the moment.  However, if we finally get a large stock market correction in 2018, coupled with a recession that would inevitably make many households hold off on buying a new vehicle - when Tesla is spending more on production/other costs than ever at a time when the economy comes to a screeching halt, etc. - then we may just see Tesla go bankrupt in FY2018.

The price of TSLA common shares at the time of publishing this article is $357.13.  I look forward to buying TSLA puts with a strike price 50% below the stock price at time of purchase sometime in 2018.  By that time, TSLA will likely be above $400, thanks to the die-hard longs who choose to ignore the warning signs and follow Elon blindly into bankruptcy battle.  It could end up being SUNE 2.0 (x10).  I very much look forward to following TSLA over the next couple of years and expect it to be a wild ride.  My best wishes to all.  Thank you for reading.

Disclosure: I have no position in TSLA and do not plan on starting one in the near future.  The above statements reflect my personal opinion, and are not trading or investment advice.

Disclaimer: Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute securities, tax, legal, or investment advice or solicitation.  Before investing or trading, seek securities, tax, legal, and investment advice from a licensed professional.

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

$SPHS April 12, 2017 Update

Hello everyone,

This is a quick blog post as a fill-the-gap post while I'm bored.  The next PR that we are likely to receive will be one of two things (in my opinion) A.) Dosing PR or B.) Deal PR.  I expected one of the two to happen weeks ago, but here we are still waiting.  I'm bored and SPHS fatigued beyond belief.  I want to get into other plays, but I refuse to sell until I see what Oppenheimer has been working on for 11 MONTHS!!! 

Hopefully we get a PR within the next week for all of our mental health.  I'm still here, still waiting, and still bored like the rest of the longs.

#allthatmattersisthedeal

Sincerely,
-THFH

Disclosure: I am long SPHS.  The above statements reflect my personal opinion, and are not trading or investment advice.

Disclaimer: Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute securities, tax, legal, or investment advice or solicitation.  Before investing or trading, seek securities, tax, legal, and investment advice from a licensed professional.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Friday, March 17, 2017 $SPHS Thoughts

Hello all,

Recently, we became aware of the phase 2b clinical trial for Topsalysin, for its prostate cancer indication, on the FDA site.  The trial was verified by the FDA on March 7.  Sophiris management/IR claim that enrollment and even dosing will start by the end of this month, yet 10 days after trial verification on the FDA site, they're still not enrolling.  This doesn't add up to me, and I still believe that this is another classic buyout in the making.  Oppenheimer has been engaged for over 10 months.  Workforce reduction by 50% occurred early in 2016 (and due to R_Shloima's great posts, it's very similar to the 40% workforce reduction months before CEO Woods' first company was bought out).  There are the large amounts of options granted at 2.74 to management, lack of a CMO when many trials are still needed to be ran, and countless other bullish hints that lead me to believe, STILL, that a buyout is in the works.

Yesterday, we saw low volume during trading hours and a narrow trading range all day (no volatility).

Earlier in the week I posted on StockTwits how I believed that a deal would be announced this week or next at the latest, and I am sticking with my gut.

Friday thoughts - over.  Have a great weekend all and let's hope for amazing news this coming week!

-THFH

Disclosure: I am long SPHS.  The above statements reflect my personal opinion, and are not trading or investment advice.

Disclaimer: Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute securities, tax, legal, or investment advice or solicitation.  Before investing or trading, seek securities, tax, legal, and investment advice from a licensed professional.

Monday, March 13, 2017

$SPHS Thoughts - March 13, 2017

Good Monday morning everyone,

I believe we're close, very close.

I strongly believe that management will not push this great wait for news past their end of Q1 deadline (for phase 2b - what they're saying at least).  I would be absolutely shocked if we don't have answers one way or another this week/next week at the latest.  With Oppenheimer engaged for over TEN MONTHS, the prolonged "silent period", phase 2b not starting, options granted, BoD seat filled, employees laid off last year with options that expire soon as severance, and so many other bullish hints, I'm finding it hard to believe that a deal will not be announced as the next major catalyst.  The wait is almost over folks; we must hang in there just a little bit longer.

My best to everyone involved in Sophiris and those affected by the diseases that Topsalysin intends to treat.

-THFH

Disclosure: I am long SPHS.  The above statements reflect my personal opinion, and are not trading or investment advice.

Disclaimer: Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute securities, tax, legal, or investment advice or solicitation.  Before investing or trading, seek securities, tax, legal, and investment advice from a licensed professional.

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

March 1 $SPHS Update

Hello all,

There has not been much to update on regarding Sophiris.  However, the fact that Oppenheimer is still engaged is very encouraging to me.  It has been nearly 10 months since Oppenheimer has been working with/negotiating on behalf of Sophiris.  With the market sizes of the two indications for Topsalysin being so large, the need for acquisitions to fuel bottom line growth for big pharma, and the stock market rallying to all-time highs (IBB at new 52 week high) - I believe this is the perfect storm for a fair deal to be agreed upon soon.  I believe multiple parties are in the midst of a bidding war as we speak actually.  For now the wait continues, but I believe we will soon be rewarded.

Take care and thank you as always for reading.

-THFH

P.S. I do not expect anything new to come out of the conference tonight in La Jolla.

Disclosure: I am long SPHS.  The above statements reflect my personal opinion, and are not trading or investment advice.

Disclaimer: Nothing contained in this publication is intended to constitute securities, tax, legal, or investment advice or solicitation.  Before investing or trading, seek securities, tax, legal, and investment advice from a licensed professional.